MMM: The Part That Worries Me Isn’t Rates
People keep comparing today’s housing market to either the 2020 COVID era or the 2017 mortgage stress test period.
But this cycle doesn’t really behave like either one.
And if you own real estate, have a mortgage, invest, or rely on employment income, that matters.
Canada recently lost 112,000 jobs over the last four months — the weakest stretch since the COVID shutdown era. Unemployment has climbed to 6.9%, youth unemployment is above 14%, population growth is slowing, and global uncertainty seems to increase every week.
At the same time, we still haven’t fully felt the long-term impact artificial intelligence could have on white-collar jobs over the next few years.
The issue today isn’t one single problem.
It’s multiple pressures stacking at the same time:
weaker hiring
slower population growth
high carrying costs
geopolitical instability
and lower consumer confidence overall
That combination changes behaviour.
Why This Market Feels Different
In 2020:
interest rates collapsed
governments injected stimulus
savings increased
and borrowing became extremely cheap
People felt relief quickly.
In 2017:
borrowing power was reduced
but employment remained relatively stable
and population growth stayed strong
Today feels different because there isn’t one clear pressure point.
Instead, it feels more like a slow grind:
higher costs
weaker confidence
slower economic growth
and increasing uncertainty around future employment
The Part Most People Underestimate
We haven’t really felt AI yet.
Most companies are still experimenting with it. But eventually, many business owners will ask the same question:
“Can software do this role cheaper?”
That doesn’t mean jobs disappear overnight. But it likely means:
leaner companies
fewer entry-level opportunities
and more pressure on certain types of income over time
Ironically, industries like trades, healthcare, infrastructure, and hands-on service businesses may become even more valuable moving forward.
So What Does This Mean for Real Estate?
I don’t necessarily believe this means a housing crash.
Canada still faces:
supply constraints
expensive construction costs
and high replacement costs
But I do think the strategy changes.
The “buy anything and wait” era may become weaker.
Going forward:
cash flow matters more
liquidity matters more
stable income matters more
and adaptability matters more
This may become a market where:
strong balance sheets outperform aggressive leverage
disciplined investors outperform emotional ones
and income growth matters more than appreciation alone
My Biggest Takeaway
The next few years will likely reward:
multiple income streams
low fixed expenses
liquidity
strong skills
and adaptability
Not fear.
Not panic.
Just discipline.
Because this market may not reward complacency the same way 2020 did.
But it could heavily reward people who stay flexible while everyone else freezes.
