MMM: March was the warning. Renewals are next.

Inflation came in hotter than expected.

2.4% in March (up from 1.8%) — but that headline doesn’t tell the full story.

Gasoline prices alone are up:

• +5.9% year over year

• +21% month over month

A lot of the media is suggesting that the Bank of Canada is downplaying oil and choosing to “ignore” its impact.

I wouldn’t.

Because inflation doesn’t hit all at once — it moves in waves.

How Inflation Actually Spreads

Think of it in phases:

Phase 1: Energy spikes (we’re here)
Phase 2: Transportation and shipping costs rise
Phase 3: Wage pressure builds
Phase 4: Everything gets more expensive

Yes, it’s simplified—but directionally, this is how it plays out.

And once costs go up, they rarely come back down.

Why This Matters More Than You Think

2026 is shaping up to be a major mortgage renewal year.

A large number of Canadians locked in their mortgages during 2021.
Now, they’re approaching renewal…

In a completely different rate environment.

What’s Happening Right Now

• Variable rates: Mostly unchanged

• Fixed rates: Still elevated (bond yields are up ~0.4% from February lows)

• Markets: Rate cuts are no longer being priced in, with about an 82% chance rates hold in April

The Real Problem

In a normal cycle, homeowners have options at renewal:

• Refinance

• Consolidate debt

• Extend amortization

• Access equity

But today?

Home prices in many markets are down 20–25% from their peak.

That limits flexibility.

You may want to restructure your mortgage—but it’s not always possible anymore.

What I’m Telling My Clients Right Now

1. Start Early — Earlier Than You Think

Don’t wait until 30, 60, or even 120 days before renewal.
Some of my clients start planning up to 11 months in advance—and they’re the most prepared.

2. Stop Chasing the “Best Rate”

You’ll hear this often, but it matters more now than ever:

It’s not just about the interest rate—it’s about cash flow.

3. Think Like an Investor

Your mortgage isn’t just a payment—it’s a tool.

Structure it so you can:

• Adapt if rates change

• Access equity when needed

• Avoid getting stuck

Bottom Line

Inflation is picking up again.
Markets are reacting.
And mortgage renewals are heading straight into it.

March was the warning.
April will show if it’s real.
May might be too late.